I have a list of weapons for one of my games. That are different in accuracy. But in the long run, they are all alike.
The following 4 weapons are worth the same:
Dice, d6, needs to roll X or less for a hit.
1 x d6<=6 certain
2 x d6<=3
3 x d6<=2
6 x d6<=1 uncertain
Sure, players can choose for certainty over randomness. Or the other way around.
But most of the time (95%). Players have so many soldiers. That the difference in the long run is almost non-existent.
At a low amount of soldiers, 3 or less. The win chance of certainty
(1 x d6<=6) is about 55-45 pitted to the most uncertain
(6 x d6<=1).
If the certain one wins, XP spending is in big chunks.
If the uncertain one wins, XP spending is in smaller chunks.
But with a big army, XP doesn't matter as well.
If a lone unit has an high inaccuracy. It still can manage to kill a lot more opponents than a certain one. They have a better chance when being outnumbered. But this too has only a slight advantage in a useless battle. The only reason why one would choose inaccuracy would be if you attack from a range.
***
I seek something to add.
Something that can increase the Obvious to a choice.
Who can help me?
Yes, it is indeed my intention in making interesting choices of weapons.
Well, of course we don't roll d6 with an accuracy of 6. It was just for comparison.
And there is a second roll that is depending on the number of hits. But shows no difference in influence thus far.
I could call the 4 weapons 1x 6/6, 2x 3/6, 3x 2/6 and 6x 1/6 if that is easier to understand.
I tested in my simulator. And the score of the 1x6/6 against all other weapons are:
111% against 2x 3/6
115% against 3x 2/6
121% against 6x 1/6
That was for a 1 on 1. (I simulated 100,000 times) Obvious the lower accuracy means a better chance in killing. But also in doing overkill. That is why they are actually worse in the long run.
That effect goes away when I have like 30 vs 30 soldiers. Where the end result is only 104% for 1x6/6 versus 6x1/6.
While you need only 3 hits against the weakest soldiers. Having 6 hits is indeed overkill.
It is not really a choice. If you like to go for a long run, you go for the best accuracy.
So my guess is, that I need to have more reasons for players to choose the weapon they like to equip their soldiers with.
Surely,
the way of upgrading a weapon,
or the soldiers that take opportunities,
cannot be the only 2 reasons for this.