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[Way OT] Musings on free will

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mawibse
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[Way OT] Musings on free will

I can see it now, a game called: Grand Unified Theory!

You play Science Cards consisting of Research Facilities or Scientists to be able to play combinations of Research cards called Published Theory.
Each Published Theory collects follower tokens, and depending on the combination of Research Cards making it, it attracts one of the three Follower Groups (Religious, Scientists or Media).

The player with the most followers in the follower group which they has least followers in, wins. (Like Tigris&Euphrats)

Example of Science card:
Type: Scientist
Name: Stephen Hawkfins
Play cost:
Choose and discard a Research card from your hand when you put Stephen Hawkfins into play or Stephen Hawkfins is discarded.
Effect:
In discard phase you may keep one additional Research Card on your hand.
Followers:
Religious:
Scientists: -1
Media: +2

Example Research Card:
Type: Discovery
Name: Hole
Publish criteria:
Berkley laboratories in play.
You must have at least 3 Religious followers on one of your Published Theories.
If Worm is also part of this Published Theory: Religious +1
Followers:
Religious: +1
Scientists:
Media: -1

jwarrend
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[Way OT] Musings on free will

Zomulgustar wrote:

Science is itself something of a religion, with the core tenet that objectively verifiable truths are of intrinsically greater value than others, and an assortment of beliefs such that physical law is universal and doesn't change arbitrarily, that our memories and recordings of the past are reliable with enough corroboration, etc.

Right, exactly! There are so many assumptions you need to make just for science to get started that I’ve always found it hypocritical of scientists to perceive themselves to be breathing such rare air (and I say this as a professional scientist, lest my remarks be misconstrued).

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Anyway, a common companion meme to the one described above is that the latest accepted models are a correct representation of the underlying reality rather than just a predictive description.

Quite so; someone once said “he who marries his worldview to today’s science will be a widow tomorrow”. I’m sure that person said this much more elegantly, but the point is obviously that we envision ourselves to be vastly superior to those who have come before us, but that probably overstates our case.

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It's not quite as much fun as trying to explain radioisotope dating to a large room filled with 7d/6000yr creationists, but it'll do much more for your career opportunities in the field.

It’s interesting that you grant the inherent limitation of science to disseminate truth, yet you also treat those who disagree with the current state of the art as if they’re morons.

First, let’s grant that the layperson would be equally confused by the discussion you guys are having here as the hypothetical creationists in your audience, so appealing to the beliefs of the non-specialist is hardly compelling in determining truth.

What you might be surprised to find is that there are those who do understand radioisotope dating just fine, and yet interpret the measurements differently. More on this below...

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A fact is a falsifiable datum which is objectively and replicably observable, and has been verified beyond reasonable dispute.

I completely agree with this definition, and I think it throws bare the issue that’s at hand: that’s there’s a fundamental difference between that ingredient of scientific knowledge amassed by assembling observations, which leads to this sort of statement: “I pointed the telescope at NGC 45-678 and observed the following red shifts” , and the ingredient that interprets these observations, of this type “this means that NGC 45-678, under such-and-such an interpretive framework, is X light years away”.

The key here is the distinction between the observation and the interpretive framework that gives the observation meaning. The business of science is to constantly amass more observations, to constantly refine the dominant interpretive framework. Every once in a while, that paradigm changes, but this can happen slowly and with great resistance. In that sense, I think that mawibse considering “facts” to be “whatever the current majority of scientists thinks” is misguided in the extreme; the history of science shows just how tenuous those kinds of “facts” would be. What doesn’t change, though, are the experimental observations (although they may grow more precise as equipment and techniques improve).

The creationists that you belittle would actually stipulate to all of the observational facts that you would, they’d just disagree with how those facts are to be interpreted. And because of that, I don’t see that you have any grounds available to look down on them, if you’re going to be internally consistent with the statements you’ve already made.

With respect to radioisotope measurement, the facts are merely the presence of various types of elements in a sample, but interpretation, and several assumptions (that the decay rates have always been constant, that the amount of parent and daughter present at the sample’s origin are known, etc), are required to convert this information into a date.

You might be interested in the following articles:

www.icr.org/pdf/research/Helium_ICC_7-22-03.pdf

Long story short, measuring the amount of He retained in zeolite crystals, (emitted as alpha-particles during radioactive decay), and measuring the rate at which He diffuses out of such crystals indicates that there is way too much He present in the crystals; based on the amount of He and the measured diffusion rate, the maximum age is 6000 years. (check it out, it’s pretty amazing)

www.icr.org/pdf/research/Helium_ICC_7-22-03.pdf

In this one, among other results, it’s shown that an ostensibly pre-Cambrian diamond shows measurable C14, which is a real problem since, because of its short half-life, no detectable C14 should be present in anything older than about 100,000 years. Incidentally, it’s also my understanding that all coal samples found worldwide, all supposed to be >1 million years old, show detectable C14; this seems to present a similar problem.

I’m primarily trying to get you to revise your thinking here. If someone stipulates to the same facts as you, then the point of disagreement really becomes the way that those facts are interpreted. I agree that there are rules that guide the formulation of an interpretive framework, and among these are, for example, that the framework should be economical. However, not among these, in my view, would be a requirement that one’s view should coincide with the majority opinion of scientists.

Just something to think about...

-Jeff

Zomulgustar
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[Way OT] Musings on free will

I only recently noticed that this conversation had been relocated to the off-topic board rather than dev/null, so please pardon the delayed response.

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Right, exactly! There are so many assumptions you need to make just for science to get started that I’ve always found it hypocritical of scientists to perceive themselves to be breathing such rare air (and I say this as a professional scientist, lest my remarks be misconstrued).

I must admit I'm a mite curious how you ended up there with your declared philosophical position, unless you've kept a bit quieter about it in professional circles. Not to speak ill of my alma mater's professorship, but I doubt I left a terribly positive impression with most of those who could supply recommendations, and handwaving that problem away I'd probably get myself blackballed before I even finished my thesis. (Besides I'd need to remember how to integrate multidimensional trig functions again. It's been six years, and I still haven't gotten that smoky smell out of my frontal lobe.)

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Quite so; someone once said “he who marries his worldview to today’s science will be a widow tomorrow”. I’m sure that person said this much more elegantly, but the point is obviously that we envision ourselves to be vastly superior to those who have come before us, but that probably overstates our case.

I actually had my ego surgically reduced a while back, so I'm not quite there on the inclusive 'we'. Otherwise we seem to be on the same page.

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It's not quite as much fun as trying to explain radioisotope dating to a large room filled with 7d/6000yr creationists, but it'll do much more for your career opportunities in the field.

It’s interesting that you grant the inherent limitation of science to disseminate truth, yet you also treat those who disagree with the current state of the art as if they’re morons.

As I already mentioned in private communication, the analogy was intended to imply hostility among the creationists (and other flavors of dogmatists), not stupidity. And that too is a rather inappropriate generalization of personal experience, so you may consider it retracted for any sample of rational discussion too small for the locally applicable analogue of Godwin's Law to ensure its untimely demise. Still, conceding that their model is possible is not the same thing as believing it's likely.

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The key here is the distinction between the observation and the interpretive framework that gives the observation meaning. The business of science is to constantly amass more observations, to constantly refine the dominant interpretive framework. Every once in a while, that paradigm changes, but this can happen slowly and with great resistance.

I never quite understood the supposed need for a near-universally accepted paradigm for progress in science. Why not acknowledge that there are multiple interpretive frameworks that, while falsifiable in the foreseeable future, cannot be unilaterally invalidated with the present data, and that each potentially has something to offer in the way of inspiring new directions for theory to search? The application of Occam's Razor can be frighteningly arbitrary from a perspective outside the ivory tower's echo chamber. (Ether might be relatively superfluous, but space, time and causality? Not so much...) Myself, I prefer to just admit that I'm growing a beard. Keep it reasonably trimmed, sure, but the goatee the establishment seems to be going for just doesn't cut it for me.

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What doesn’t change, though, are the experimental observations (although they may grow more precise as equipment and techniques improve).

We hope. In some ways, the past is just as uncertain as the future.

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With respect to radioisotope measurement, the facts are merely the presence of various types of elements in a sample, but interpretation, and several assumptions (that the decay rates have always been constant, that the amount of parent and daughter present at the sample’s origin are known, etc), are required to convert this information into a date.

With you so far...

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You might be interested in the following articles:

[massive snipping]

(check it out, it’s pretty amazing)

Hoo-boy. First off, it looks like you accidentally sent both links to the same article, so that's the only one I can comment on. While I'll gladly admit that 'uniformitarianism' is a paradigm subject to falsification, it's not (IMHO) one in anywhere near so dire a crisis as the author of this paper seems determined to suggest. He makes unsupported and misleading statements about Uist model predictions re: the behavior of atmospheric helium, which give me the overhwelming impression he's just setting up a strawman. Honestly, this doesn't leave me feeling terribly inspired in the credibility of the analysis that follows, but I'll gladly give it as fair a read as I can in the interest of maintaining this dialogue. What disturbs me is not that he is questioning the dominant interpretation, but that his motivations for doing so are transparently rooted in a desire to confirm his belief in a contradictory dogma rather than a willingness to discover the truth even if it contradicts his pre-existing inclinations. At least this is more honest than obfuscating those motivations... A more detailed point-by-point rebuttal may follow, unless you'd prefer we either cut this conversation short or move it to another context (and you thought this thread was OT before...^_^)

What I find especially ironic is that on a gut level I feel Uism is more supportive of the existence of a tetra-omni deity than any alternative could be. Are you more impressed with the engineer who builds a machine and then constantly comes back and adjusts one gear or another, or with one who anticipates every adjustment could ever possibly want to make and builds it seamlessly into the structure of the machine itself... building his will INTO his creation rather than reaching in from the outside? The Watchmaker needn't be Blind, so to speak. It's the whole Neo-dodging-bullets thing writ large. If God's really God, he doesn't NEED to change his creation for it to bend to His Will.

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I’m primarily trying to get you to revise your thinking here. If someone stipulates to the same facts as you, then the point of disagreement really becomes the way that those facts are interpreted. I agree that there are rules that guide the formulation of an interpretive framework, and among these are, for example, that the framework should be economical. However, not among these, in my view, would be a requirement that one’s view should coincide with the majority opinion of scientists.
Just something to think about...

Absolutely...afraid you won't find me revising my thinking much on that account, since I'm already there. My apologies if (IF) I came down too harshly about the article...I don't especially like being told that I'm ignoring 'elephant in the room' evidence, but considering the specks I see in the eyes of some scientists, can you give me a hand with the other end of this? ^_^ The idea is not responsible for the politeness or objectivity of the person to whom it occurs, so I'll at least look.

BTW, did you _have_ to add the bit about customizing it like those awful *opoly games? I was SO set to do "Publish & Perish: the Game of Scientific Revolution" (complete with Popper-O-Matic bubble) until I read that part. Oh well. :p

Zomulgustar
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[Way OT] Musings on free will

Wow.

Just wow.

A rebuttal.
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/helium/zircons.html

A rebuttal of the rebuttal.
http://www.trueorigin.org/helium01.asp

Something tells me these two aren't even stipulating to the same facts, much less agreeing on the rules that guide the formulation of an interpretive framework. I'd elaborate further, but I fear I may fall short of defending, speaking well of, and kindly interpreting the actions of one of the parties involved. How's that for 'fair and balanced'? ^_^b

jwarrend
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[Way OT] Musings on free will

Zomulgustar wrote:

I must admit I'm a mite curious how you ended up there with your declared philosophical position, unless you've kept a bit quieter about it in professional circles.

It's actually not as much of a stretch as you might think. I just tend to a more tentative view of the results that we scientists produce, recognizing the edifice of assumptions that any scientific work is built on. That's not to say we can't still make tremendous progress, merely that we should be honest about the assumptions built into our results. I definitely don't hold to the view that whatever the majority of the scientific community believes is equivalent to fact. Science is a human endeavor, and I've seen behind the curtain enough to know that scientists, as much as we strive for objectivity, are subject to biases, mistakes, dogmatism, vindictiveness, bad manners, moral failings, and the same stuff that everyone is subject to.

I'll also observe that the science I'm involved in, thin film growth, has no bundled existential implications, and moreover, the built-in assumptions are much more modest and the analytical methods more direct. It's quite a bit easier to say how thick a film is than how old a rock is.

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As I already mentioned in private communication, the analogy was intended to imply hostility among the creationists (and other flavors of dogmatists), not stupidity.

Ok. Surely there's a fair bit of hostility on the other side of the aisle as well, wouldn't you agree?

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And that too is a rather inappropriate generalization of personal experience, so you may consider it retracted for any sample of rational discussion too small for the locally applicable analogue of Godwin's Law to ensure its untimely demise. Still, conceding that their model is possible is not the same thing as believing it's likely.

That's fine; my point was simply to say that if someone stipulated to the same facts but looked at them through a different interpretive lens, then that, in and of itself, doesn't deserve scorn; whatever interpretive framework happens to be popular is just our best guess at the present time.

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I never quite understood the supposed need for a near-universally accepted paradigm for progress in science. Why not acknowledge that there are multiple interpretive frameworks that, while falsifiable in the foreseeable future, cannot be unilaterally invalidated with the present data, and that each potentially has something to offer in the way of inspiring new directions for theory to search?

This is exactly my point. For example, there are non-creationist scientists who don't accept the Big Bang, on purely scientific grounds. There's a tendency among scientists to shout down those with different interpretations. I don't think that scornful posture is really appropriate.

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First off, it looks like you accidentally sent both links to the same article, so that's the only one I can comment on.

Whoops! The other one is icr.org/pdf/research/RATE_ICC_Baumgardner.pdf. Sorry.

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While I'll gladly admit that 'uniformitarianism' is a paradigm subject to falsification, it's not (IMHO) one in anywhere near so dire a crisis as the author of this paper seems determined to suggest.

Translation: "I am already committed to uniformitarianism, and will interpret all data through that framework." (not trying to being a jerk, this merely dovetails with what I'm going to say in a minute...)

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He makes unsupported and misleading statements about Uist model predictions re: the behavior of atmospheric helium, which give me the overhwelming impression he's just setting up a strawman.

This isn't central to his argument. To understand the argument, the only facts that really matter are (a) there is quite a bit of He still in the zeolites and (b) the measured He diffusion rates indicate that there should be much less He present if the rocks are as old as 'Uism' would require.

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What disturbs me is not that he is questioning the dominant interpretation, but that his motivations for doing so are transparently rooted in a desire to confirm his belief in a contradictory dogma rather than a willingness to discover the truth even if it contradicts his pre-existing inclinations. At least this is more honest than obfuscating those motivations...

This is certainly a limit on the objectivity of the work, but you're making the false assumption that the same thing doesn't happen on the opposite side. Surely you've heard about the recent finding of soft tissue in a T-rex bone. Of course, the scientific community will not question for even a second whether these are really 60+ million years old; rather, all scrutiny will be directed as trying to imagine a mechanism that could account for 60+ million year preservation, assuming the age of the bones as a given.

I disagree with your earlier statement. Whether uniformitarianism is falsifiable in principle, it is not falsifiable in the minds of scientists; it is completely entrenched, and all observations are interpreted through its lens.

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What I find especially ironic is that on a gut level I feel Uism is more supportive of the existence of a tetra-omni deity than any alternative could be.

Here you're misunderstanding the crux of creationism: the question isn't so much what conception of God is the most admirable, but rather, whether the Bible is a true account of the world's history. Creationists believe that it is, and this is a starting point for the interpretation of observations. Others start with different assumptions, and reach different conclusions.

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The idea is not responsible for the politeness or objectivity of the person to whom it occurs, so I'll at least look.

I think it's worth reading; I've found Humphreys to be a bit argumentative in tone at times, but the fact is, the guy is pretty well qualified, having worked at Los Alamos National Lab. Does that mean his arguments are correct? Of course not. But I was mainly using him as an example of someone who probably understands radiometric dating just fine, but interprets the results differently. It was a response to a critique of creationists that apparently you weren't actually making.

I'm aware of the rebuttal, and the rebuttal to the rebuttal. I'd be happy to discuss it further or drop it as you prefer, but we should probably go off line with the discussion if you want to continue.

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BTW, did you _have_ to add the bit about customizing it like those awful *opoly games? I was SO set to do "Publish & Perish: the Game of Scientific Revolution" (complete with Popper-O-Matic bubble) until I read that part. Oh well. :p

Sorry about that! Enter it anyway! Who knows, it might do well. Surely you can incorporate an effect of "stealing faculty from rival universities" that will enable the customization bit.

Thanks for the continued discussion and the respectful tone; I appreciate both.

-Jeff

larienna
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[Way OT] Musings on free will

Wow! Philosophy and science on a board game forum. I am sure we can make a game out of it : "My phillosophy is better than your!, it has +2 vs creationist"

Anyways, I don't want to say who is right or wrong. But does it really matter?

If theory X is right, will it really make my life or other people's happier?

There are much more important problem that we should put our mind on. Like the fact that in 10 or 20 years from now, we will all die from starvation and modern civilisation might cease to exist due to ecological, economical and demographic reasons. Your greatest concern then won't be if theory X is true or false, it will be how and where can I produce food to make sure I can survive the next year.

Now the get back to the start of the thread. About the free will thing. I agree with the fact that the past can influence our behavior but we can still make the choices

What's important is to be councious that our past influence our action. It will allows us know ourself and redefine what we are according to new values. It will also make sure that our past won't choose for us. Many existentialist philosopher from the XXth century focused on this.

Remember that we always have a choice. If somebody place a gun on my head, I still have the choice to refuse what he is asking for.

jwarrend
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[Way OT] Musings on free will

Larienna wrote:

There are much more important problem that we should put our mind on. Like the fact that in 10 or 20 years from now, we will all die from starvation and modern civilisation might cease to exist due to ecological, economical and demographic reasons.

Wow, that's a pretty dire prediciton! I've heard something similar from someone else I know recently, but I've not heard such a gloomy prediction anywhere else. Do you have a link to an article that fleshes out this prediction, and that shows the trends that all converge near-term but that are also subtle enough that they seem to have escaped widespread notice? I'm interested in reading more about it.

Thanks,

Jeff

Johan
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[Way OT] Musings on free will

Larienna wrote:
There are much more important problem that we should put our mind on. Like the fact that in 10 or 20 years from now, we will all die from starvation and modern civilisation might cease to exist due to ecological, economical and demographic reasons. Your greatest concern then won't be if theory X is true or false, it will be how and where can I produce food to make sure I can survive the next year.

Yes I agree. We will also die in the new Ice age that is predicted (or was the world to be flooded when the ice at North and South pool is melting).
Twenty years ago we were doomed by HIV and after that we had several viruses. When I was in school (during the 70th) we know that we was going do die of the WWIII (The nuclear war between Nato and Sovjet). You could not escape that.

The only thing we know is that in 20 years we will have a different world. One generation of humans has disappeared and a new generation with new ideas has entered the scene.

We should solve the problems we have today (pollution, poverty, wars and so on). The next generation should concentrate on there problems without having ours also.

// Johan

larienna
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[Way OT] Musings on free will

Well, I am one of the pescimist and I have read a lot of books about it. I also read a lot of books about Volunteer Simplicity which talks also about it.

- From the books you might know :

They touch the subject a bit in most recent Michael Moore's books or in Fast Food Nation.

There is also a canadian book called "Dark age Ahead" that explains how our society is crumbling. At the begining, the author is making a comparison of our society with the roman empire.

- From book you probably don't know ( since they are all in french )

I read 2 books about volunteer simplicity.
one of them is a traduction of "Stepping Lightly, Simplicity for the People and the Planet"

One Book that promote the necesity of starting the ungrowth(de-industrialisation) of our economy in order to survive. It is also talking about globalisation and the omnipresence of the car in our society. (it's all the car's fault)(^_^)

Another ecological book from Hubert Reeves called "Mal de terre" (Earthache).

And I am currently reading a book about climate change where the result are far from being good. In fact I think that if we stop everything today, we will still meet our doom.

In in canada, we have a french editor called "Eccosociete" that only publish books which are related to this subject.

From what I have seen and read, there is 4 kind of people :

The Pescimist : Whatever we do, we are doomed. The only solution is to stop all industrialisation now. Even then, success is not guaranteed.

The Moderate : If we regulate and distribute the ressources correctly, we will be able to solve the problems.

The Blind : There is no problem, science will eventually solve everything.

The Unawared : A problem! I have not heard about it. ( They will eventually fall in one of the 3 categories above ).

So this is it. I think it is my primary source of knowledge about this subject. This is one of the reasons why I want to leave montreal and maybe live on a farm(or something close). I want to make sure I can survive a cataclysm.

But there nothing to worry about! Like Telus mobility said ( a cell phone company) ... "The future is friendly".

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