Hey all,
I think I've talked about this game a little bit before, but I'm working on a wargame called Escape From Illeria. One of the hallmarks of this game is that most characters begin essentially the same, except that when they are created they are given a pair of abilities. Right now I'm testing the abilities for relative power, basically using a simulation that runs 100,000 battles and records who wins. After the 100,000 battles have been run, the screen prints how often the character with each ability won (i.e. killed the opponent and lived), and how often there was a draw (i.e. both died). I've found that 100,000 battles is enough so that if I rerun the simulation, the wins don't vary by more than 1%.
So, that said, I have a problem: I'm not sure how much of an advantage qualifies as a serious advantage. For example, if Parry wins 45% of the time, and Bonus Attack wins 40% of the time, does that really qualify as a major advantage? I ask in part because I'm trying to figure out a way to record the advantage each ability has over the other, so I can tally it at the end (for example, in my last simulation, Bonus Attack was stronger than 9 abilities, weaker than 3, and about the same as 2). Right now, I thought that a 10% bonus in survival rate was enough to qualify (i.e. take the amount that the first won, divide it by the amount the second won, see if that is more than 1.1 or less than .9). I'm considering also having something like "Extreme victory," if you really beat the opponent. I don't know, what do you think? Is 10% reasonable? Is there a better metric to use?
And I guess my other question: at what point will and advantage be noticeable to players?
And I know what some of you are going to say, I should just playtest all of this. I know there are subtleties I'm missing here, which can only be testing in a real game. That said, I have a large number of abilities to test, and running 10 million fights on a computer is much easier to do than run even 2 or 3 games in real life (part of it is I just moved, and haven't found any new gamer buddies yet). So, I'd like to be able to optimize this as much as possible before someone actually takes time out of their day to play the game.
How do you measure 65% of the time?
I guess here is the problem: if two characters with no ability fight, they both have a 34% chance of surviving, which leaves a 32% chance that they both go out. Do I drop the chance of a draw, and just compare 34% to 34%? (because otherwise there would be a 66% chance that the first would kill the second)
Also, 65% victory means that one character is twice as likely to beat the other. Is that too large of a minimum advantage to measure?